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The president’s immigration strategy…and the fine print that upends all the assumptions

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My favorite political columnist – without question – is Canadian Paul Wells. He’s at Macleans these days, but he made his reputation at the National Post, sparing no one from biting humor and refusing to let his biases get in the way of a good column (to the point of ripping to shreds a provincial party the day after he voted for them in an election). Wells has four rules for Canadian politics, and the debate over the president’s immigration order has led to shamelessly steal and Americanize the second one, “If everyone in Ottawa knows something, it’s not true.”

Depending your point of view, the president has either broken a Congressional deadlock on immigration in a dramatic fashion, or greatly exceeded his Constitutional authority and put the future of the Republic at risk. Either point of view assumes he will confer benefits on 5 million or so unauthorized immigrants without any say-so from Congress. Everyone in Washington knows that, and so…

If everyone in Washington knows something, it isn’t true.

Last Thursday night, the president announced he was changing priorities for deporting unauthorized immigrants – most agree that he has that power (although many are leery of his determination to use it so broadly). He also announced a program for said immigrants to get temporary deportation relief, including green cards and Social Security numbers.

However, I took a look at the White House’s fine print (courtesy of the Weekly Standard), and I noticed the following:

You Cannot Apply for Several Months: The U.S. government–and specifically USCIS – will not begin accepting applications until early 2015.

Why does that matter? Simple:the federal government will run out of money before then. So, contrary to what anyone says, Congress can indeed stop the president, by specifically refusing to authorize the president’s plan in the next Continuing Resolution (without a specific refusal, the president could sign a CR and add a signing statement that he interprets this as an authorization). Of course, until January 3, Congress is still split, meaning such a CR will never reach the president.

So, either a shutdown is coming (a shutdown the president is convinced he can exploit to maximum effect), or the Republicans cave before a shutdown (rather than after it). Either way, the president gets what he wants: Congressional OK for what he has announced.

Of course, this assumes the president can “win” a shutdown – an assumption so widespread it could trigger the aforementioned rule. Still, as I don’t see any Republican with even a halfway decent shutdown strategy (including myself), odds are the president has good reason to be confident.

Rolling this forward (which can be problematic), this reality (once it sets in) could then completely change the nature and politics of the debate. Once the delayed deportation becomes accepted reality, it will likely be Republicans who will have more motivation to deal with immigration. The president’s action does nothing to address border security, the need for an Ellis Island on the Rio Grande, or the critical limitations on high-skilled immigrants and immigrants with capital. These issues won’t go away, but they’ll likely be far less important to the Democrats as a whole, let alone the president, whose I-checked-the-box-let’s-move-on attitude has stymied follow-ups on just about every political issue.

In other words, the assumptions that the president has overstepped his authority and yet is certain to score a political winner are probably both wrong. Remember: if everyone in Washington knows something, it isn’t true.

@deejaymcguire | facebook.com/people/Dj-McGuire | DJ’s posts

The post The president’s immigration strategy…and the fine print that upends all the assumptions appeared first on Bearing Drift.


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